Author Topic: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!  (Read 64188 times)

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Offline njkayaker

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #90 on: July 28, 2010, 02:32:59 pm »
njkayaker, I did actually admit my maths error on this, I was in the middle of something else and rushed it off without checking.   ~The maths is, in the post, dreadful but I have already owned up to that.
I'm not complaining about the math error. That isn't the biggest error!

Statistically, however, comparing the number of posters on this site (and I admit that this may not be representative of the every Salsa Owner in the world) who haven't had problems with those who have, still reveals a relatively high percentage.
No, it doesn't "reveal a relatively high percentage" of problems occurring. Such a small and self-selected subpopulation can't say anything about the real rate of the problem in the total population.

To get an accurate measure of the real rate in the, you need a random and unbiased selection of samples (and you need more than 7 samples).

People volunteering information isn't random! The "statistics" are invalid unless the samples are randomly selected.

It's a very well-known bias that people who have problems are much more likely to post about them.

And let's be clear about the nature of the problem, this is not something trivial, this is a bike which in my case was too dangerous to ride and in John's case appears to be equally serious.
There isn't any problem talking about the issue. I don't have any problems with talking about the issue.

It is incorrect (plainly wrong) to think that the data provided in this thread is enough to say anything about the real rate of the problem across all Fargo owners.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2010, 02:39:01 pm by njkayaker »

Offline whittierider

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #91 on: July 28, 2010, 04:01:08 pm »
njkayaker, again I would mention that in any such argument, a lot of people will jump in and say, "I've had product XYZ for three months now and have had absolutely zero problems," implying that there must be something wrong with the complainer.  If you look at the owner reviews of bikes in general, they tend to be very positive, and this without their having owned the product long enough to mean much.  Especially with a major purchase like that, it's natural for someone to want to think they made the best decision, and to be proud of it.  (I find more negative owner reviews on smaller purchases like cycle computers and tires.)  Saying they haven't had any problem however just means the failure rate is not 100%.  That's not very useful information, whether you're big into statistics or not.

To take a different example, a few years ago I read on the forums many (at least a dozen) first-hand accounts of people breaking Wippermann chains.  One man wrote that after breaking three, he decided it was time to give up on Wipperman.  One of his broke not even 100 yards into his first ride with it.  Another had less than 100 miles.  The places they were breaking was not where the ends were joined, so it was not an installation error.  The plates were not merely pulling off the pins either, as if the fit weren't tight enough.  The side plates were cracking, and the holes were breaking out.  Wippermann apparently had a sporatic problem with their rivetting machine.  Predictably, others jumped into the discussion saying things like "I've been using a Wipperman for 1,500 miles and have had no problems whatsoever."  So what's the defect rate, as a percentage?  I have no idea; but I do know that virtually every chain-breakage problem I've read was about Wipperman, and the only broken chain I've picked up off the road was also a Wippermann (a lot of its side plates had cracks radiating out from the holes)-- even though Wipperman does not have a very large percentage of the market.  I have not heard further stories in the last couple of years.  So did they get the problem fixed?  Maybe, but you can bet that it will be a long time before I'm convinced it's safe to buy that brand of chain.  Is my caution justified?  I think so.

My best guess about the Fargo is still that once in awhile an asymmetrical fork gets through.  That's no reflection on the frame except that that model of fork might only (or mainly) be getting used on that model of frame.

Offline njkayaker

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #92 on: July 28, 2010, 04:23:53 pm »
njkayaker, again I would mention that in any such argument, a lot of people will jump in and say, "I've had product XYZ for three months now and have had absolutely zero problems," implying that there must be something wrong with the complainer.  If you look at the owner reviews of bikes in general, they tend to be very positive, and this without their having owned the product long enough to mean much.  Especially with a major purchase like that, it's natural for someone to want to think they made the best decision, and to be proud of it.  (I find more negative owner reviews on smaller purchases like cycle computers and tires.)  Saying they haven't had any problem however just means the failure rate is not 100%.  That's not very useful information, whether you're big into statistics or not.

I'm only making a comment about the bad statistics. Nothing else.

The "positive reviews" is another common bias. It's the great middle of people (who don't have problems) who can be very underrepresented.

I am not suggesting that people not talk about their negative experiences about a product (well, as long as they are honest about it).


Offline TimTyler

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #93 on: July 28, 2010, 06:22:36 pm »
This thread should be closed by the admins.

Or at the least, the subject should be reworded for accuracy to something like "My Personal Poor Experience with a Salsa Fargo"
Tim

Offline alfonso

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #94 on: July 28, 2010, 07:50:37 pm »
I agree with Tim. This thread is now at P7. It's hard to imagine any further constructive contributions to the discussion. Enough already.

Online jsieber

Re: Salsa Fargo - Lemon of the year!
« Reply #95 on: July 28, 2010, 09:10:52 pm »
As requested the thread has been locked.