I am new to this site, but have been lurking and researching for several months the aspects of a cross country tour - for me, I believe it will be the Southern Tier.
Regardless of the route, having just retired from a manufacturing company I am acutely aware of the impact of COVID-19 on all worldwide supply chains - from guitars to bleu cheese. But, I had not really put the supply chain issues in perspective with respect to new bicycles.
I was at one LBS in my hometown and they are having their worst year, albeit with the highest consumer demand in history, due to the supply chain issues from China. Lead time on new bikes is extending now into 2022.
So, as I had come down to a Surly Disc Trucker or Trek 520 as my bike of choice I was still surprised the Surly is looking at 2022 for any new deliveries and the Trek lead-time is also quite extended - but, the dealer in my town is a large volume dealer and they did put an order in last July (2020) for a Trek 520 in 57cm - my need. It will be delivered in October of this year, but the novel situation has also dictated new purchase rules: No deposits taken - the first buyer to purchase the bike and pay in full + sales tax will take delivery of the bike when it comes in (October or later). And, No cancellations. If you are injured, have cancer, whatever - you have to take the bike or sacrifice all your money.
I get it. Supply and demand.
My interest in the Southern Tier would need to depart San Diego next March, so if I want to be ASSURED of a new 520 I feel I will need to purchase it in the next couple of months. if something would happen that I cannot make the tour I think I would have no problem finding a buyer of the bike for all the reasons mentioned above - but, still a risk.
I have called a few other trek dealers and they are all in the same boat - if you order a 520 now it may not be delivered until the summer of 2022 or later.
Now, my question - is anyone else seeing this phenomenon? I believe it is real, but wanted any supporting or contrary thoughts.
I have looked extensively at used bike sites, but most of the 520's are 10 years or older. I turned 71 yesterday and don't want any additional risk to a journey in bike break down or old parts (my old parts are risk enough . . .).
Please let me know if anyone else is seeing this or knows of a shop with a new 520 in 57cm in stock.
Thanks.