Congrats on your new 520.
A quick glance on the Trek website and a few newish review articles of the latest 520 indicate that your 520 will likely have clearance for up to 700x50mm tires (without fenders). Trek apparently recently upped tire clearance on the 520....in line w/ so many newer bikes in general. So 40mm Supremes should be no problem w/ your fenders, but it's always good to confirm once you have the bike.
Based on my general preferences, I would pick the 40mm variant of the Supremes for touring, without question. I don't see a meaningful downside and you will gain a little bit should you encounter variable conditions. Point of anecdotal reference, my 2017 touring bike came stock w/ 700 x 40mm tires, the well regarded Clement MSOs. Good, stable setup, particularly for typical road touring. I did encounter some variable conditions on my tours w/ those tires (e.g., dirt, gravel and muck)....some planned, some not...and the bike handed quite well, although there were a few instances when I would have liked something wider.
Now, not to get too off track, but there are occasions when I like to use my touring bike in a more bikepacking/"adventure" type orientation for short overnight/weekend trips. In that context, I found the stability provided by the wider 700c tires to be a bit of a minus, and was looking for some more lively handing. I eventually found a great deal on a decent 650b wheelset and put some good 650x48mm tires on the bike. Really excellent and provides more nimble handling as it has effective circumference similar to 700x28 road bike. But, overall, the stability provided by wider 700c can be an asset for typical road touring, which I think is your primary usage.
Bottom line, I would advocate against downsizing from your stock size, and instead upsize by a couple mm.
Either way, have fun and I hope you enjoy your new ride!
j