Author Topic: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?  (Read 24982 times)

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Offline dan_t

How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« on: March 11, 2021, 07:04:19 pm »
Just wondering how many people ride the Northern Tier each year. Any idea?

Offline John Nelson

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2021, 11:47:47 pm »
This question gets frequently asked, not only about this route, but about other routes (most often about the TransAmerica Trail). The answer is always that nobody knows. The ACA knows how many maps they sell, but that's a poor correlation to the number of riders, since maps are sold to people that never ride the route, people start and never finish, and a single map set can be used by a whole group. There's no sign-in book at the start, nor finish book at the end. The ACA does count the number of people who stop at the HQ in Missoula, but it's likely that count misses a lot of people who never go there, show up when they are closed, or don't bother to sign in. And the ACA encourages people to log their tours on this site, but I'll bet that most people don't. Then there are questions about what qualified as riding a route. Does that mean every mile? How do you count people who rode part of the route?

People love to make guesses, usually based on how many people they saw when they rode the route, or how many people they counted in the log book at Cooky's Cafe, or something else, but these guesses are very rough.

There's an opportunity for you here. Devise a system to get an accurate count. Get volunteers to take shifts at the Yorktown Victory Monument and the Columbia River Maritime Museum for all the daylight hours for the year, who collect names and then contact them later to see how far they got.

It would be a big job. Too big.

Offline dan_t

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2021, 01:08:46 am »
IMO as a statistician, map sales would be a pretty good proxy. It seems like people buying map sets are pretty serious. Resales could be estimated reasonably well from Amazon and Ebay histories. Really what I'm trying to establish is the order of magnitude. Is it 10, 100, 1000?

Offline UncaBuddha

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2021, 12:26:20 pm »
Case in point. I ordered the Idaho Hot Springs mapset a couple of years ago but life and fires conspired to keep me away.

Offline CMajernik

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2021, 12:51:21 pm »
In 2018 we sold 88 map sets of the Northern Tier. Individual maps numbers are higher. And map sets for the TransAm, the Southern Tier, and the Pacific Coast are higher.
Carla Majernik
Routes and Mapping Program Director

Adventure Cycling Association
Inspiring people of all ages to travel by bicycle.
800/755-2453, 406/721-1776 x218, 406/721-8754 fax
www.adventurecycling.org

Follow Routes & Mapping on Twitter: @acaroutes

Offline kearnejo@yahoo.com

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2024, 11:43:29 pm »
As someone currently riding the Northern Tier alone, I find myself asking the same question.

 I've yet to meet another cyclist going East to West and I'm nearly done. I did start in August but even then places like The Notch Hostel or the ferry operator from Vermont to NY said they had maybe a handful over the summer.

I've personally passed no more than 5 or 6 coming the other way.

So my guess is no more than a dozen a year, a tiny amount.

Offline jamawani

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2024, 12:26:05 am »
It's hard to meet a lot of people going the same direction -
especially if you are riding at an average pace.
And even more so if you are riding outside of the main touring season.
I figure there are about as many riding eastbound as westbound.

In the past you used to have some good barometers.
By the 1990s, everybody on the TransAm stopped in at June Curry's Cookie House.
Even if just to visit, get some water, eat a cookie, and say "Hi".
I would venture to guess that the peak was in the 80s and 90s.

I've been touring since the mid-80s and feel there has been a noticeable decline.
My point of reference is hiker/biker campsites at national parks.

Back in the late 80s and early 90s, there were always other cyclists.
In 2019 there was one other couple for 1 of 3 nights in Yellowstone
and a group that shared Rising Sun on 1 of three nights in Glacier.
Yosemite may not count since they don't post that cyclists can camp at North Pines.
But on my last trip, 2019, there were no other cyclists - a first.

Others may wish to share, but I feel that long-distance, self-contained touring
has seen a huge drop-off over the past 25 or 30 years.
If it time? Money? Inclination?

Offline canalligators

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2024, 08:59:08 pm »
Others may wish to share, but I feel that long-distance, self-contained touring
has seen a huge drop-off over the past 25 or 30 years.
If it time? Money? Inclination?

Traffic volume increases? Distracted drivers?  Aging enthusiasts?  Antagonistic drivers?

I get the sense that long distance touring is in decline generally, and I bet AC thinks so too, as they are emphasizing shorter tours.  They are also offering few self-contained tours and more van supported.

The times, they are a-changin’.

Offline davidbonn

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2024, 11:30:57 am »
I think a bunch of things are going on independently.

One is that the popularity of outdoor activities tend to wax and wane in popularity over time, often on weird seven or nine year cycles.

Another is that most of the ACA routes were laid out forty to fifty years ago when there were 100 million fewer people in this country and correspondingly less traffic.  Very few cyclists enjoy cycling in heavy traffic.  Doing so with a fully loaded touring bike at the end of a sixty mile day is Not Fun.

Along with the above, recent stats show a pretty substantial increase in pedestrian and cyclist fatalities these last few years.  It is unclear as to why (it doesn't seem to be because of larger vehicles or distracted driving).  So fairly or unfairly bicycle touring is probably seen as a more dangerous activity.

A lot of people who previously would have been "bicycle touring" are now "bikepacking" (*).  The popularity of the GDMBR and the many newer bikepacking routes on various websites shows that a lot of people art still Getting Out There.

(*) -- I don't consider bikerpacking or bicycle touring to be clearly distinct activities, but rather different sets of tools to solve the challenges of bicycle travel.  The Bicycle Police won't arrest you if you mix the toolsets and you shouldn't worry about doing so.

Offline kd_ca

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2024, 12:50:48 pm »
Having recently ridden in central asia (Kyrgyzstan etc), in my limited observation, the decline in bike "touring" is specific to USA.

I met and saw many Europeans (Brits, Germans, Belgians, Swiss and overwhelming majority French) starting their rides from their front doors in Europe, riding across Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, the "Stans", towards China and Mongolia with intended trip completion destinations in Kyrgyzstan or SE Asia.  Ran into a few Australians riding the route reverse.  Most of their rigs were sub $1000, 2x or 3x drivetrains, with the most expensive components being their pannier bags (which a few had acquired used).  The well heeled amongst them had the $2K+ bikes and 1x drive trains.

Met two guys who were biking towards Mongolia and hoping to make Lake Baikal or Yakutsk before winter set in.  One had his sight on Magadan, Russia (eastern Siberia) and I hope for his sake he makes it.  It takes 2 weeks to get Russia visa.  Only thing is bring US Dollars, not Euros.  ATM and credit cards do not work in Russia at the moment

Age group of those I met early 20s to mid-30s. A few oldies like myself, but we were the minority. A few young women doing the route solo.  Everybody was riding self supported and often solo, without satellite phones or SIM cards. Internet access they acquired when they checked into a hostel or home stay. Overwhelming reliance on offline maps from maps.me, since google maps is quite deficient (missing quite a few valid routes) in those geographic areas.   

The roads outside the main capital cities are at parity or worse than official fire trails in US.  Its a peanut butter mud show when it rains or snows.  All riders noted drivers of cars and trucks didn't care to share the road with bicyclist, whether you were in Turkey, Iran or in the Stans.  Cars and trucks belch thick pollution and you can often taste half burnt fuel.  Drivers pass within a foot or two of your elbow.  There is no highway patrol or 911 to call even if you had cell phone connectivity.  Hospitals or health care facilities are a rarity outside capital cities.  You will probably bleed out before timely aid can be rendered.

Most riders wild camped often as it appears to be permitted / tolerated in these countries.   At higher elevations, you keep yourself warm by burning horse or cow dung (bring poop gloves).  Sometime mountain melt caused these waist high water crossings across roads: wait until after sunset when melting activity is lower and water levels drop to knee levels making crossing easier.  The water is ice cold no matter time of day or night.  Nights are punctuated with vocals from wolves who are never too far away and the visiting wild horses that are annoyed with humans camping on their turf.  Your self defense weapons are stones and your gut instincts.

When I talked to them about riding in Americas (North or South), they didn't have interest due to expenses (travel, visa, daily expenses) and impression of the Americas being unsafe.  I estimated their daily budgets of an average of $10 - $15 a day, including food, in Aug / Sep 2024; its a rough living but not unhealthy.  Many fly budget airline Pegasus that charges for drinking water !!!

GI sickness when in the Stans was not uncommon with few travellers being spared. 

I could have done a better job organizing the thoughts from my experience, but then I would probably never get around to sharing.  My point is old style (without satellite phones or internet connectivity, tires with tubes, and using simplistic bicycles) Bike touring is very much alive, unfortunately you will have to travel outside the US to experience the joy of observing others indulging in this wonderful activity. 


 
« Last Edit: October 06, 2024, 01:02:08 pm by kd_ca »

Offline jamawani

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2024, 03:04:40 pm »
Kd Ca -

You can still do it lo-tech in the U.S., too.
People just look at you like you are homeless.  ;-)

Offline Bike2it

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2024, 02:28:18 pm »
Kd Ca -

You can still do it lo-tech in the U.S., too.
People just look at you like you are homeless.  ;-
 
It seems here in the USA it is getting difficult to tent camp without being harassed, fewer tent sights in campgrounds and less available legal dry camping areas.  I think it is called false scarcity. 

Offline davidbonn

Re: How many people ride the Northern Tier each year?
« Reply #12 on: Today at 10:06:00 am »
It seems here in the USA it is getting difficult to tent camp without being harassed, fewer tent sights in campgrounds and less available legal dry camping areas.  I think it is called false scarcity.

I'd say that both unofficial and official hostility to dirtbag travel in general is much higher today than ten or more years ago.  This is all even more noticeable if you aren't traveling a popular route.