Well, after an eight-day shakedown I am pretty happy with the new carry and am confident I could live out of my bike for long periods with the new configuration.
The new configuration:
Front bag: Swift Industries Rando Bag (10L). I carry tools, lunch, extra gloves, phone, wallet, and the like here. I can stuff a layer in there or more food there if necessary as well.
Fork bags: Blackburn 7L dry bags right and left. These are very waterproof and reasonably lightweight. These carry clothing and my sleeping mat.
Drive side rear pannier: North Street Bikepacking Pannier. I carry my sleeping quilt and other items that I won't need during the day's ride here, like toiletries, battery packs, cables, and the like. Some food is usually put in here to help balance with the left side pannier. About 10L.
Left side rear pannier: REI Link II Pannier. Here I carry my tarp and bivy, my cook kit, fuel, layers I might need during the ride (e.g. raingear), and overflow bags and straps. There is usually a bit of food here that is redistributed to balance the weight between R and L. 10L-12L.
Overflow bags (on top of the rear rack): either a small mesh stuff sack that can carry the wet tarp, wet raingear, or otherwise wet and dirty clothes, or a larger overflow bag (Mountain Laurel Designs 12L dry bag) that mostly is used to carry groceries.
Other: a small top tube bag and small feedbag. The top tube bag usually carries small items like hand sanitizer, sunscreen, lip balm, and the like. The feedbag holds a water bottle on top of the two I can carry in the cages.
Two things kind of need improvement. The feedbag is too small and I'd like a larger one to more stably carry a bottle, and there is poor provision for storing snacks. The slash pockets on the rando bag are pretty good but if you are riding bumpy you can easily eject RX Bars and string cheese. So I'm killing two birds with one stone: I'm upgrading the feed bag to an Oveja Negara Chuckbucket and will use the existing MOLLE straps to attach the old feedbag to the rando bag. So I can then comfortably carry a larger water bottle on the bars and can use the older feedbag as a snack pocket. As a bonus the Oveja Negara feedbag has a nice pocket with a velcro closure, so more places to carry snacks!
This is a fairly good Dirt Touring configuration. I have smaller (2.5L) dry bags that I can use for a fast-and-light trip. Total carry weight less food and water is about 25lbs.